The limbo has continued today. At one point the ABC had the ALP with 72 seats and the LNP with 69 (3:36pm). That figure continues to vary regularly throughout the day. There are five seats still marked as too close to call, however the projections have been consistent with each side falling short of an absolute majority with 73 seats each.
Whilst Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott both debate whether primary of two party preferred counts as a negotiation point I think we should move forward (sorry) from that insane debate and examine what this mean for Australia?
What it means simply is that the 1 Green and 3 Independent MP’s all of a sudden become the most powerful Australians within current society. Deals will need to be cut between the major parties and the smaller, usually insignificant, MP’s. This is a good thing as real negotiations will need to occur and the electorates generally forgotten by successive governments will finally receive attention. In terms of who goes where is an interesting one.
The Greens MP, Adam Bandt, would logically side with the ALP as they are further left than the LNP. Further, policies such as the NBN are common to both the ALP and the Greens. The good news is that the proposed internet filter/censor would likely be ditched under such negotiations. Noises to date indicate that this allegiance is the most likely outcome, however there are no guarantees.
The 3 independents though are probably even more important. These 3 MP’s are all from regional Australia and all were previously associated with the conservative side of the fence. All though have valid can varying reasons to why those allegiances are in the past. This was very evident on election night with the stouch between Barnaby Joyce and Tony Windsor. Further evidence suggests that Bob Katter and Barnaby Joyce have a similar distaste for one another. Clearly their past conservative allegiances do not mean that they will automatically side with the LNP. Negotiations with Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott are likely to see vast improvements for regional Australia, primarily in the electorates they represent. However, I get the feeling that all three see their importance as an opportunity to bring regional matters to the forefront.
There is also the new Independent National Party MP, Tony Crook. Mr Crook has just ousted seemingly perennial representative (and known loose cannon) Wilson Tuckey from the seat of O’Connor in Western Australia. Mr Crook has been hasty to let it known that he does consider himself allied to the LNP, rather as another crossbencher. Mr Crook has reportedly put his support on auction with a price tag of $850 million for regional Australia. Not sure if Mr Crook’s approach is the best long-term approach for his constituents, but it does make his position on the matter clear.
Regardles, what is clear is that the combination of the gang of four regional MP’s that are not strictly aligned with the LNP are going to ensure Australia pays attention to the needs of regional Australia. Not a bad thing by any measure, the bush is often neglected.
It will be very interesting to see what the LNP and ALP offer in order to secure the support of these MP’s in order to form a government. The LNP ofcourse have the conservative moral ground and are traditionally strong in encouraging exports. Typically these tie in with the goals of regional Australia, they also have the position on the mining super profits tax, that is it will be scrapped. Again a strong concern for Regional Australia. Other issues though remain.
Clearly telecommunications is going to play a large part within these electorate. Of all the candidates that were interviewed on election night it was these three that had to communicate with the nation by crackly telephone lines with a still picture on screen. It was a throw back to the early 80′s, with the only thing missing the presence of the bakelite phones with ring dials. Telstra has never served these areas particularly well, and never will as new infrastructure is not seen as instantly commercially viable for the TelCo with its goals defined by short to medium term success, not in the longer term gain. Should the TelCo be forced into servicing these area and taking the hit? In my opinion no, but this goes back to when Telstra was privatised. The public should have retained ownership of the infrastructure and leased capacity to Telstra and any other player, in much the same way that the national broadband network is modelled.
Reportedly Bob Katter would like to see more made of ethanol fuels and Rob Oakshott wants an emissions trading scheme (ETS). Though Kevin Rudd fell short on environmental matters both of these are more likely to play to the ALP side than the LNP. Especially when you consider that there are severe question marks on whether Tony Abbott:
- Accepts the scientific studies that clearly demonstrate global warming exists.
- Believes oil supplies are not finite as evidenced in the leaders forum.
Like him or hate him, he floundered badly here. Ethanol deserves a great deal of attention and could be a good alternative fuel source with appropriate research. It of course will also give the sugar farmers another market for their product.
I will finish with a prediction that we will be back at the polls in the next 6 to 18 months. Whichever side forms government will then try and put runs on the board quickly and try to win an absolute majority. If it is the LNP we will be back to the polls sooner than the ALP who will need more time for the electorate to forget the mess of the first term and the shocker of a campaign. Interesting and nervous times remain.
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